China has replaced the United States as the engine of the global economy, providing by far the largest contribution to growth in recent years and pulling along the world's smaller economies in its train.
The Asian country accounted for 28% of all growth worldwide in the five years from 2013 to 2018, more than twice the share of the United States, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The Fund predicts China will account for a similar share of growth over the next five years between 2019 and 2024 (“World economic outlook”, IMF, October 2019).
The United States is still important, and the Federal Reserve remains at the center of global markets, but the U.S. economy is no longer large enough or growing fast enough to act as the sole locomotive for the world economic train.
China on its own, and the other major emerging markets collectively, are now more important drivers of the global economy.
中国和其他主要新兴市场现在是全球经济更重要的驱动力。
The traditional aphorism should probably be recast as “when China sneezes” or “when emerging markets sneeze”, the world catches a cold.
那句老话或许应该改写为“当中国打喷嚏时”或“当新兴市场打喷嚏时”，世界就会感冒。
China’s cyclical slowdowns in 2014/15 and 2018/19 were major contributory factors in the worldwide economic slowdowns in those years and China will remain central to the global cycle over the next five years.
▲ China has replaced U.S. as locomotive of global economy: Kemp (via Reuters)
图 via 新华网
接下来，在提到贸易战时，作者讲出了西方媒体很少承认的一句大实话：美国蓄意破坏中国经济。
Since early 2018, the United States has pursued a deliberate policy of attempting to hurt China’s economy in response to concerns about the shifting balance of economic power and unfair trade practices.
Tariffs and non-tariff barriers, including tougher restrictions on market access, investment, business ownership, security blacklists, sanctions and criminal prosecutions have been employed in a “whole-of-government” effort.
The narrow, publicly stated goal has been to force China to change its industrial policies, including subsidies, state-directed lending, intellectual property protection and market access.
从小范围来看，他们想迫使中国改变其产业政策，包括补贴、国家指导性贷款、知识产权保护和市场准入。
The broader strategic aim has been to restrain the country’s growth and shore up the current U.S.-led global balance of power.
实际上他们更广泛的战略目标则是抑制中国的增长，巩固当前以美国为首的全球力量平衡。
Given China’s role as the global economic locomotive, economic warfare was bound to cause a broad slowdown in the world economy, which materialised in 2018/19.
There was simply no way to hurt China’s economy without the impact recoiling on the rest of the world, including on the United States, given China’s central role in global growth.
考虑到中国在全球经济增长中的核心作用，要想伤害中国经济，世界其他国家，包括美国，都会受到影响。
▲ China has replaced U.S. as locomotive of global economy: Kemp (via Reuters)
